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Llama theoycrafting

 
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Joehunk



Joined: 06 May 2009
Posts: 20463

PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:48 am    Post subject: Llama theoycrafting Reply with quote

Objective: answer the question "what is the best bang for my V-buck?"

Data:
Forgive me for not citing sources. It's not like I'm writing about women in tech or anything. This is gathered from Reddit and various Youtube videos.

Upgrade llamas have a 20% chance of going Silver. Of the Silvers, 25% of those (5% overall) will go gold.

The "Super Llamas" (the ones that cost 1000-1500) are always gold.

The "Big Llamas" (the ones that cost 300-350) are just regular upgrade llamas that give a specific kind of thing. Contrary to previous suspicion, they are not automatically silver (cosmetically or otherwise). They do not always give epics, and appear to almost never give epics unless they go silver. There is not enough data to know the silver chance for these llamas. I have never silvered one (but have only purchased 2-3).

It can sometimes be surprising what the special llamas give. For instance James's experience with the Legendary Troll Llama that gave mostly survivors and defenders was not atypical. Every video I watched of someone opening one was the same. This was in no way reflected on the llama's description.

Conclusions:
The "super" llamas that cost 1000 and are auto-gold seem like the best deal. Recommendation is to save for those and try to be sitting on at least 1000 V-Bucks as often as you can. Statistically you can only expect 0.5 gold llamas from simply buying 10 upgrade llamas, so you're doing twice as good by buying the big ones.

The 350-buck llamas seem like an incredibly bad deal, especially if they don't have an additional chance to upgrade. You'd rather have 3.5 regular llamas with more whacks (literally) at an upgrade. We should see if any data emerges about their upgrade chance.

However, when a super llama comes up for sale, particularly if it's not apparent from the description what it gives and it's a type we have never seen before, try to wait until some Reddit posts or Youtube videos come out of what's in it.
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scot
Low Hanging Fruit


Joined: 06 May 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, that's helpful. I had been thinking saving for the 350's was optimal (based partly on how disappointing James' super llama was) but it sounds like I had it exactly wrong and just need to wait for better super llamas. Of course that's assuming the 350's don't upgrade, which seems like something that might be worth proving, since I do like the idea of getting specific types of schematics rather than a random mix.
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Joehunk



Joined: 06 May 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah James's super llama was an outlier not in the sense that James was unlucky but in the sense that it was a shitty llama. Hence my advice about watching youtube or reddit for guinea pigs.
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Joehunk



Joined: 06 May 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Someone else reaches same conclusion:
https://www.epicgames.com/fortnite/forums/fortnite-discussion/general-discussion/14376-psa-save-your-v-bucks-for-the-1000-v-bucks-llamas-legendary
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Joehunk



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today's llama (expires early evening US time) is a 500 V-buck legendary troll stash. I followed my own advice and watched youtubes of openings. It is DEFINITELY worth it. I had enough saved up to grab 2. I pulled a legendary auto shotgun from 1 and a legendary outlander (a crappy one unfortunately) and something I have wanted for a while namely a legendary version of the general assault rifle. Plus tons of epics and 50 founders coins each.
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scot
Low Hanging Fruit


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay I was just logging in to ask. I will do that.

Edit: mine (I only had enough for one) went gold, I take it that's part of the deal. I got:

legendary copper Deathstalker (precision burst, not my favorite) AR with hilariously disappointing bonuses: -16% decay/+20% reload/+30% reload/-24% decay/+24% fire rate

legendary floor launcher *sigh*

50 Founder's coins

epic Rescue Trooper Ramirez

3x epic survivors
epic Gadgeteer lead

rare ceiling gas trap

So, kinda troll, but yeah, still worth 500 V-bucks. Wish I had another 500.
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Joehunk



Joined: 06 May 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah I should qualify that even from among llamas that can give great stuff, one of my 2 was the only one where I was really satisfied with the actual stuff I got (this is not just from these two but from all "extra cool" llamas I have ever opened).

SMH at the legendary floor launcher. Sorry man. I have seen a couple Reddit posts that suggest "legendary floor launcher" is Reddit slang for "literally the most disappointing legendary pull possible."

Still though I think especially if they stay with the 500 $V price point for an auto-gold llama (and yes this one is auto gold based on my experience and youtube research) that is the best possible deal. And I think I do favor the llamas that can give anything because I do want a nice mix of survivors, heroes, and schematics.
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number_6



Joined: 07 May 2009
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Location: Laconia, NH

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
literally the most disappointing legendary pull possible.

That would be the Legendary Patrol Ward, but floor launcher is a close second.
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